An interesting game is being played in world politics.
In the aftermath of the Russian occupation of Crimea, an old dynamic, almost forgotten by the world, seems to have come alive again.
For many the dismantling of the USSR signaled the end of the "Communist Threat" propagated with much gusto by the American media. While this may be true from the American perspective, quite the opposite would have been true from the Soviets' perspective. So for more than twenty years they have been working on getting one back at the Americans, preferably at their own game. And that seems to be exactly what is happening.
When the Baltic states broke up, there was no mass exodus of people as was seen in the case of the India-Pakistan partition. In hindsight, not asking for this exodus was a brilliant strategic move. In Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, there is a sizable ethnic Russian community. The successful invasion of Ukraine was helped in part by support from these ethnic Russian communities. This new type of invasion labelled "Hybrid War", is lighting a fire under the US. In a recent speech, Konstantin Dolgov, the chief monitor of human rights overseas, openly declares Russian support, not precluding (or limited to) military support for Russian minorities falling prey to "neo-Nazism" overseas.
The key difference between the Baltic states and Ukraine, however is that the three states are part of the NATO alliance, and Article 5 states that NATO members will aid each other in the event of aggression against any one member. Never mind that the article which stipulates that 2% of spending on defense are being followed by only 7 members. If push comes to shove, America may be in an unenviable position of having to choose between going to war with Russia over the Baltics, in the midst of troubles at home and admitting that the NATO doesn't exist in spirit any more.
Of course, the realities can be questioned. One could make the case that this is indeed only Russian rationalization and reverse propaganda, but the truth seems grayer. In many of the countries which broke off from the Soviet, the ethnic Russian population's rights are heavily curbed. They are asked to take citizenship tests, which include tests of language and history - viewed by anyone proud of their cultural ancestry as degrading - and rightly so. This means that for these ethnic communities, Russia is closer to home than the land they have been living on for more than 20 years.
The US has gone a step further. Fracking - a new technology enabling the extraction of shale gas by fracturing the rock below the ground is becoming commercially viable at a large scale. The US has stepped up its fracking operations - despite known hazards to the environment and communities where it is done.
Why? Because this increases supply of gas, and keeps oil prices down. A number of members of the OPEC - an open cartel which regulates supply of oil to keep prices high - want to decrease supply and raise up prices, but the largest OPEC country - Saudi - knows that this will come at the expense of market share to the US gas industry and refuses to lower supply. This means that Russia, whose economy depends largely on oil prices, is practically destroyed economically.
So, for the time being the US has got some breathing space. Instead of trying to go for the jugular militarily, the right approach would be to assuage the minorities living in the Baltics.
There is a win-win situation here if the espoused cause of the Russians is reflective of their true intent. Just give these people equal rights and treat them as human beings and instill a sense of nationality and affiliation to the Baltics. It may not yet be too late. If nothing else this erodes the ideological stance and makes it more difficult for the the Russians to go down the military route.
The legal route of making ethnic Russians citizens of the Baltics removes the motives for Hybrid Warfare.
In the aftermath of the Russian occupation of Crimea, an old dynamic, almost forgotten by the world, seems to have come alive again.
For many the dismantling of the USSR signaled the end of the "Communist Threat" propagated with much gusto by the American media. While this may be true from the American perspective, quite the opposite would have been true from the Soviets' perspective. So for more than twenty years they have been working on getting one back at the Americans, preferably at their own game. And that seems to be exactly what is happening.
When the Baltic states broke up, there was no mass exodus of people as was seen in the case of the India-Pakistan partition. In hindsight, not asking for this exodus was a brilliant strategic move. In Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, there is a sizable ethnic Russian community. The successful invasion of Ukraine was helped in part by support from these ethnic Russian communities. This new type of invasion labelled "Hybrid War", is lighting a fire under the US. In a recent speech, Konstantin Dolgov, the chief monitor of human rights overseas, openly declares Russian support, not precluding (or limited to) military support for Russian minorities falling prey to "neo-Nazism" overseas.
The key difference between the Baltic states and Ukraine, however is that the three states are part of the NATO alliance, and Article 5 states that NATO members will aid each other in the event of aggression against any one member. Never mind that the article which stipulates that 2% of spending on defense are being followed by only 7 members. If push comes to shove, America may be in an unenviable position of having to choose between going to war with Russia over the Baltics, in the midst of troubles at home and admitting that the NATO doesn't exist in spirit any more.
Of course, the realities can be questioned. One could make the case that this is indeed only Russian rationalization and reverse propaganda, but the truth seems grayer. In many of the countries which broke off from the Soviet, the ethnic Russian population's rights are heavily curbed. They are asked to take citizenship tests, which include tests of language and history - viewed by anyone proud of their cultural ancestry as degrading - and rightly so. This means that for these ethnic communities, Russia is closer to home than the land they have been living on for more than 20 years.
The Response
What the US does seem to be doing is attacking Russia economically. Economic sanctions are being thrown around left, right and center while the US extends financial aid to Ukraine. The EU, for its part, froze assets and travel of Russian officials.The US has gone a step further. Fracking - a new technology enabling the extraction of shale gas by fracturing the rock below the ground is becoming commercially viable at a large scale. The US has stepped up its fracking operations - despite known hazards to the environment and communities where it is done.
{Simpsons episode on Fracking here. Go to the Videoweed mirror}
So, for the time being the US has got some breathing space. Instead of trying to go for the jugular militarily, the right approach would be to assuage the minorities living in the Baltics.
There is a win-win situation here if the espoused cause of the Russians is reflective of their true intent. Just give these people equal rights and treat them as human beings and instill a sense of nationality and affiliation to the Baltics. It may not yet be too late. If nothing else this erodes the ideological stance and makes it more difficult for the the Russians to go down the military route.
The legal route of making ethnic Russians citizens of the Baltics removes the motives for Hybrid Warfare.
Awesome.. great start!
ReplyDelete